For reference, unit coffers sit just shy of 20MM.
Operation ALACRITY - salvage and BLC awful. Hard pass.
Operation ALSOS - salvage and BLC lousy, House command. Strongly against.
Operation ELSTER - Clan mission. We're no where near ready. Hard Pass.
Operation ISKRA - Planetary assault with 30% salvage and no BLC? Have more than 1 brain cell. Hard pass.
Operation POLAR GULF - Transportation of 50% hurts. 14 jumps @ 600M each (all dropships, no jumpship) = 8.4MM costs. Transportation net is 1.4MM to the good. Not much. Total cash paid to unit outside of transport just shy of 24MM. Unit expenses are roughly 440M/month and transit + contract = 6 months, so call it 2.6MM operating. I'd estimate we net clear 20MM after repairs etc. Salvage is 70%, BLC is 60%, both very strong. Spica is within St. Ives borders, so acquisition TNs should be only at +2 not +3. Chance for jumpship, equipment is periphery B, so probably meh. Yes there are Star League caches here, though by the same token SL mechs are generally more in line with higher end salvage these days. Nice, but not as big of a driver as it was especially earlier in last campaign pre-Clan invasion. Allies are roughly on par with our opponents. Highest likelihood of solo missions. Small chance of WMDs used against us. That said, we're close enough to campaign start that even if it happened, easy enough to generate a new lance and recover from. Good solid contract. Biggest selling points not being out in the middle of nowhere when the contract is over (for Pirates) and chance for Jumpship. Don't know how likely it is though.
Operation HOMEFRONT - Transportation is 100%, 7.2MM in cost vs. 16.8MM allocated, net 9.6MM. Payout for the unit over the 9 months is 47MM, operation costs at 3.9MM, likely clear 50MM. Factory world which we'd have access to after three victories, certainly at end of contract. We'd be facing off against Vet opponents with solid gear. Our allies are equally skilled, but though in poor equipment. That said, the more we win, the better our allies get. High likelihood of solo missions. Not quite as high as Pirate, but still very high. No risk of having WMDs used on us. Salvage rights are 50% vs. 70% for POLAR GULF. Lower percentage of better gear. Not sure where the trade off is. BLC is absolutely a difference though with 60% vs. 0%. My character Lieutenant Xiao has a level 2 Enemy in the Cappellan Holdfast Guard on world (along with a good rep there). His life would probably be more difficult, though I as player would find that more amusing, so for me that's actually an argument in the favor of going with HOMEFRONT. Advantages to HOMEFRONT are in cash, factory access and potentially better contracts after this contract.
Definitely plusses and minuses to both of the last 2. I would be more amused with HOMEFRONT so on that alone I would lean a bit more that way, but happy with either.